Redpolls, Grosbeaks, and Other Finches Are in the Forecast for Winter 2026

From the Winter 2026 issue of Living Bird magazine. Subscribe now.

Birders in the eastern and central U.S. could be up to their binocular lenses in Redpolls, Pine Siskins, and Evening Grosbeaks this winter.

That’s according to the latest installment of the Finch Research Network’s Winter Finch Forecast, the yearly outlook that since 1999 has used information about cone, seed, and fruit production on trees in Canada to predict which and how many of the so-called winter finches will move south to where there is more food—and more people to spot them.

Birds to keep an eye out for this winter, according to the forecast, include Redpolls and Pine Siskins, along with Evening and Pine Grosbeaks. Also included in the yearly prediction are crossbills, Purple Finches, Red-breasted Nuthatches, Bohemian Waxwings, and even Blue Jays. If this winter pans out as predicted, the U.S. and Canada may see a historic movement among many of these species.

“With mostly very poor crops in the boreal forest from central Quebec westward to Manitoba, this has the potential of being the biggest flight year since 2020–21,” wrote Winter Finch Forecast author Tyler Hoar.

During that winter five years ago, Redpolls reached New Mexico, siskins showed up in Bermuda, and there was a so-called superflight of Evening and Pine Grosbeaks. That was also the first winter that Hoar took over the duties of winter-finch forecasting from longtime finch prognosticator Ron Pittaway. 

Hoar doesn’t get paid to write the forecast, but gets to scout birds and trees while traveling across central and northern Ontario as a biologist with the Canadian Wildlife Service, deploying autonomous audio recording units for monitoring Eastern Whip-poor-wills and Common Nighthawks. He says the top food crops for Redpolls and siskins (spruce, tamarack, and birch) were practically nonexistent this year. He also gathers reports from foresters and birders across Canada and the northern U.S. to compile the forecast, and says other usually consistent food sources, such as alder, failed to produce this year as well. 

Additionally, he says spruce budworms were booming in central Canada this past summer, which created an abundant food source for nesting birds—and likely led to bumper broods of birds like Evening Grosbeaks, Pine Siskins, and Purple Finches. When these booming populations find their local trees are mostly bare this winter, it’s a mismatch that could drive big numbers of birds south looking for food. 

This winter, Watch Out for These Species: 

Pine Siskins 

This past September scads of Pine Siskins were already showing up on eBird checklists across southern Canada, the Northeast, and Midwest—an early indicator of a siskin irruption. By late October there were siskin reports as far south as Atlanta, Georgia.

Hoar says siskins tend to move through southern Ontario before Redpolls, and he’s seen so many siskins moving already that he’s worried the Redpolls will have trouble finding food as they sweep through behind them. Siskins have even made it as far Texas, according to an update to the Winter Finch Forecast, with increased sightings expected even across the southern United States.

If you have a free eBird account, you can view a map of recent Pine Siskin sightings.

Redpolls

Small groups of Redpolls began showing up on eBird reports in southern Ontario and eastern Quebec in September, a full six to eight weeks earlier than the first waves typically arrive from their tundra and northern boreal breeding grounds.

Michael Werner, an eBird reviewer for the Timiskaming District in northeastern Ontario, saw several small groups on a field trip on September 20 but notes that the Redpoll movement had already been underway in his area prior to that.

“We’ve had small numbers of Redpolls moving through since about the third week of August, which is really, really unusual,” Werner says. “Normally, we don’t start seeing [them] until the middle of October.” 

As of late November, migration hotspots such as the Tadoussac Bird Observatory in Quebec and Hawk Ridge Bird Observatory, Minnesota, have seen multiple flights with birds numbering in the hundreds or thousands, and eBirders have reported the species as far south as Peoria, Illinois, and Philadelphia.

If you have an eBird account, you can view a map of recent Redpoll sightings.

Evening Grosbeaks

Tyler Hoar usually waits until early November to confirm whether there will be a big movement of his personal favorite winter finch, Evening Grosbeak.

“In most years, the first big push comes in a 10-day window around Halloween,” Hoar says. This year, he noticed a few Evening Grosbeaks were already showing up in the lower Great Lakes by early October.

Since mid-November, as wintry weather started to affect parts of the eastern boreal forest, Hoar says that Evening Grosbeak movement increased in intensity. Tadoussac Bird Observatory, Quebec, recorded more than 2,000 Evening Grosbeaks passing through from November 15–20, 2025; and the striking yellow birds have been recorded as far south as West Virginia already.

If you have an eBird account, you can view a map of recent Evening Grosbeak sightings.

Pine Grosbeaks

Pine Grosbeaks often feed on wild mountain-ash fruits across their winter range, but when that fruit is in short supply, they head south and often appear on ornamental fruiting trees in southern Canada, around the Great Lakes, and into New England.

“They’re going to hit these towns … whether it’s for ornamental crabapple, mountain-ash, or wild grape,” says Hoar. “Find out where your fruiting trees are, keep an eye on them.” 

“Pine Grosbeak are currently starting to steal the show,” Hoar remarked in a late November email update. The original forecast had called for a small to moderate flight, but after strong numbers were seen in Quebec, Minnesota, and Michigan, the team updated their forecast favorably for southeastern Canada, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast.

If you have an eBird account, you can view a map of recent Pine Grosbeak sightings.